Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Venezuela vs Gran Valencia — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
2/15/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 3Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atletico Venezuela46%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.45
Gran Valencia
1.07

Atletico Venezuela creates 36% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 23 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Gran Valencia
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Gran Valencia
1.61

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
72%
Atletico Venezuela or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
54%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
22%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
18%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
66%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
29%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
62%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Gran Valencia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Gran Valencia attack 0.91 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
46%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
28%

Atletico Venezuela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Venezuela vs Gran Valencia

Atletico Venezuela beat Gran Valencia 1-0 in Primera División on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.