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Atletico Venezuela vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
10/27/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atletico Venezuela48%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Anzoategui26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.55
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.08

Atletico Venezuela creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
74%
Atletico Venezuela or Deportivo Anzoategui
75%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
52%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
46%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
20%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.55

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
48%
level
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
26%

Atletico Venezuela at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Venezuela vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Match Preview

Atletico Venezuela face Deportivo Anzoategui on October 27, 2019 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atletico Venezuela host Deportivo Anzoategui at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.