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Atletico Venezuela vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
3/15/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela34%
×Draw28%
Caracas FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.15
Caracas FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 146 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
62%
Atletico Venezuela or Caracas FC
72%
Draw or Caracas FC
66%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
14%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
11%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
71%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
35%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
47%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
34%
level
28%
Caracas FC scores more
38%

Caracas FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Venezuela host Caracas FC

March 15, 2020: Atletico Venezuela take on Caracas FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Venezuela host Caracas FC at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.