Atletico Uri 1–2 USD Palmese: Result & Stats

Atletico Uri

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

USD Palmese

12/17/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atletico Uri37%

×Draw26%

USD Palmese37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico UriExpected goals in this matchUSD Palmese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

Atletico Uri

1.30

USD Palmese

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

1.46

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Atletico Uri

1.19

USD Palmese

1.15

allows per match

Atletico Uri

1.46

USD Palmese

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

USD Palmese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw

63%

Atletico Uri or USD Palmese

74%

Draw or USD Palmese

63%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

16%

USD Palmese wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

14%

USD Palmese 1+ goals

73%

USD Palmese 2+ goals

37%

USD Palmese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

50%

USD Palmese (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Uri scores more

37%

level

26%

USD Palmese scores more

37%

Atletico Uri at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Uri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff