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Atletico Uri vs Trastevere — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trastevere
Trastevere
3/28/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 29Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Atletico Uri38%
×Draw25%
Trastevere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.42
Trastevere
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Trastevere
1.30

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Trastevere
1.66

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Trastevere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
64%
Atletico Uri or Trastevere
75%
Draw or Trastevere
62%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
18%
Trastevere wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
17%
Trastevere 1+ goals
75%
Trastevere 2+ goals
40%
Trastevere 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
51%
Trastevere (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
38%
level
25%
Trastevere scores more
36%

Atletico Uri at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Uri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Uri vs Trastevere

Trastevere beat Atletico Uri 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.