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Atletico Uri vs Torres — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Torres
Torres
1/23/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Uri23%
×Draw27%
Torres50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
0.89
Torres
1.44

Torres creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Torres
1.41

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Torres
0.59

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
50%
Atletico Uri or Torres
73%
Draw or Torres
77%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
8%
Torres wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
59%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
22%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
6%
Torres 1+ goals
76%
Torres 2+ goals
42%
Torres 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
32%
Torres (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.89

Torres attack 1.41 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
23%
level
27%
Torres scores more
50%

Torres at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Uri vs Torres

Torres beat Atletico Uri 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau in Usini.