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Atletico Uri vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
1 – 2
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
9/26/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Uri36%
×Draw26%
Team Nuova Florida38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.30
Team Nuova Florida
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
62%
Atletico Uri or Team Nuova Florida
74%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
64%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
16%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
37%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
14%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
74%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
39%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
48%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
36%
level
26%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
38%

Team Nuova Florida at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Team Nuova Florida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Uri vs Team Nuova Florida

Team Nuova Florida beat Atletico Uri 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.