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Atletico Uri vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Atletico Uri40%
×Draw25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.45
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.31

Atletico Uri creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
66%
Atletico Uri or Sarrabus Ogliastra
75%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
19%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
18%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
73%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
38%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
54%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
40%
level
25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
34%

Atletico Uri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Uri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Atletico Uri 0–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra

Atletico Uri and Sarrabus Ogliastra drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau in Usini.