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Atletico Uri vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarnese
Sarnese
10/13/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 6Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Uri28%
×Draw26%
Sarnese46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.06
Sarnese
1.44

Sarnese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
54%
Atletico Uri or Sarnese
74%
Draw or Sarnese
72%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
11%
Sarnese wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
9%
Sarnese 1+ goals
76%
Sarnese 2+ goals
42%
Sarnese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
38%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
28%
level
26%
Sarnese scores more
46%

Sarnese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Atletico Uri 2–0 Sarnese

Atletico Uri beat Sarnese 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Campo sportivo comunale Peppino Sau in Usini.