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Atletico Uri vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
A. Terracino 84'
F. Camara 53'
3/6/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Uri40%
×Draw28%
San Marzano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.24
San Marzano
1.08

Atletico Uri creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
68%
Atletico Uri or San Marzano
72%
Draw or San Marzano
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
17%
San Marzano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
13%
San Marzano 1+ goals
66%
San Marzano 2+ goals
29%
San Marzano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
55%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
40%
level
28%
San Marzano scores more
32%

Atletico Uri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Uri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
F. Camara
84'
A. Terracino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Uri vs San Marzano

San Marzano beat Atletico Uri 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 6, 2024.

Goals: F. Camara (53'), A. Terracino (84').

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.