Atletico Uri 1–1 Paganese: Result & Stats

Atletico Uri

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Paganese

10/2/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atletico Uri31%

×Draw26%

Paganese42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico UriExpected goals in this matchPaganese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.41

Atletico Uri

1.17

Paganese

1.41

Paganese creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

1.35

1.46

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atletico Uri

1.19

Paganese

1.35

allows per match

Atletico Uri

1.46

Paganese

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Paganese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Paganese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw

58%

Atletico Uri or Paganese

74%

Draw or Paganese

69%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

13%

Paganese wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

11%

Paganese 1+ goals

76%

Paganese 2+ goals

41%

Paganese 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

42%

Paganese (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Paganese away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Paganese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Paganese attack 1.35 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Uri scores more

31%

level

26%

Paganese scores more

42%

Paganese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff