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Atletico Uri vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
12/18/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Atletico Uri29%
×Draw25%
Ostia Mare46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.17
Ostia Mare
1.53

Ostia Mare creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
54%
Atletico Uri or Ostia Mare
75%
Draw or Ostia Mare
71%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
12%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
11%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
78%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
45%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
39%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
29%
level
25%
Ostia Mare scores more
46%

Ostia Mare at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Uri vs Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Atletico Uri 4-2 in Serie D - Girone G on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.