Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Uri vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
3/12/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Atletico Uri40%
×Draw26%
Latte Dolce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.39
Latte Dolce
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 82 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
66%
Atletico Uri or Latte Dolce
74%
Draw or Latte Dolce
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
18%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
16%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
72%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
37%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
53%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
40%
level
26%
Latte Dolce scores more
34%

Atletico Uri at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Uri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Atletico Uri 1–0 Latte Dolce

Atletico Uri beat Latte Dolce 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.