Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Uri vs Gelbison — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Gelbison
Gelbison
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Uri32%
×Draw26%
Gelbison42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Uri
1.19
Gelbison
1.41

Gelbison creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Uri
1.19
Gelbison
1.35

allows per match

Atletico Uri
1.46
Gelbison
1.18

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par
Gelbison+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Gelbison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw
58%
Atletico Uri or Gelbison
74%
Draw or Gelbison
68%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+
13%
Gelbison wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals
70%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
12%
Gelbison 1+ goals
76%
Gelbison 2+ goals
41%
Gelbison 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
43%
Gelbison (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Gelbison away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Gelbison defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gelbison attack 1.35 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Uri scores more
32%
level
26%
Gelbison scores more
42%

Gelbison at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gelbison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Atletico Uri 3–3 Gelbison

Atletico Uri and Gelbison drew 3-3 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Comunale Uri in Uri.