Atletico Uri 2–1 Aprilia: Result & Stats

Atletico Uri

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aprilia

1/14/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 19Campo Comunale Uri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Atletico Uri36%

×Draw27%

Aprilia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico UriExpected goals in this matchAprilia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Atletico Uri

1.25

Aprilia

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 47 away

1.19

creates per match

1.09

1.46

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Atletico Uri

1.19

Aprilia

1.09

allows per match

Atletico Uri

1.46

Aprilia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Uri ↓

Aprilia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Uri or draw

63%

Atletico Uri or Aprilia

73%

Draw or Aprilia

64%

Winning margin

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

16%

Aprilia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

13%

Aprilia 1+ goals

72%

Aprilia 2+ goals

36%

Aprilia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

49%

Aprilia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Uri at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Uri attack 1.19 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Atletico Uri defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Uri scores more

36%

level

27%

Aprilia scores more

37%

Aprilia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff