Atletico Tucuman 2–2 Platense: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Platense

A. Lotti 90+3'

F. Gonzales 36' (OG)

I. Gómez 39', 7'

2/18/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Atletico Tucuman47%

×Draw29%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

Atletico Tucuman

1.27

Platense

0.81

Atletico Tucuman creates 57% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.34

creates per match

0.73

0.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.34

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Platense

1.21

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.14scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

76%

Atletico Tucuman or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

22%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Platense 1+ goals

56%

Platense 2+ goals

19%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

67%

Platense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.34 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Platense attack 0.73 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

47%

level

29%

Platense scores more

24%

Atletico Tucuman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Gómez

Platense · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Horacio Tijanovich

7'

I. Gómez↳ G. Bergessio

10'

Ramiro Carrera

18'

Guillermo Acosta

36'

F. GonzalesOwn goal

39'

I. Gómez↳ I. Schor

46'

N. Laméndola← J. Pereyra

46'

A. Doldán← G. Risso

63'

Marcelo Ortíz

65'

F. Andrada← L. Heredia

65'

R. Tesuri← G. Acosta

73'

N. Morgantini← I. Schor

73'

M. Bogado← F. Gonzales

73'

T. Sandoval← G. Bergessio

83'

F. Baldassarra← I. Gómez

84'

E. Isnaldo← R. Cristóbal

87'

Haibrany Ruiz Diaz

87'

F. Cardozo← H. Tijanovich

88'

Bruno Bianchi

90+4'

Renzo Tesuri

90+3'

A. Lotti↳ A. Doldán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoPlatense

Overview

62%Possession38%

15Total Shots7

10Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target2

6Off Target1

7Blocked4

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

535Total Passes333

432Accurate Passes236

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1