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Atletico Tucuman vs Patronato — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Patronato
Patronato
R. Ruiz 88'
O. Benítez 63'
A. Lotti 43'
G. Acosta 36'
G. Gudiño 90+3'
D. Gissi 16'
3/15/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Atletico Tucuman53%
×Draw25%
Patronato22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.57
Patronato
0.92

Atletico Tucuman creates 71% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 70 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.43
Patronato
0.79

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.05
Patronato
1.71

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par
Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Patronato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
78%
Atletico Tucuman or Patronato
75%
Draw or Patronato
47%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
27%
Patronato wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
46%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
21%
Patronato 1+ goals
60%
Patronato 2+ goals
23%
Patronato 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
70%
Patronato (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.05 · 121 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Patronato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Patronato attack 0.79 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
53%
level
25%
Patronato scores more
22%

Atletico Tucuman at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
O. BenítezAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · F
7.6

Match Events

16'
D. Gissi↳ H. Canteros
36'
G. Acosta
40'
Nicolás Aguirre
43'
A. Lotti↳ R. Carrera
46'
F. Mussis← N. Aguirre
50'
Guillermo Acosta
62'
M. Ortiz← A. Lagos
62'
R. Ruiz← G. Acosta
62'
O. Benítez← R. Carrera
62'
G. Gudiño← M. Garay
62'
F. Dettler← N. Bandiera
63'
O. Benítez↳ J. Toledo
69'
Franco Leys
71'
M. Palavecino← D. Lemos
71'
J. Barreto← J. Arias
72'
N. Laméndola← A. Lotti
77'
Franco Mussis
78'
L. Torres← H. Canteros
81'
Nicolás Laméndola
88'
R. Ruiz↳ O. Benítez
90+3'
G. Gudiño↳ M. Palavecino

Possession

49%Atletico

Shots

9Atletico

Pass accuracy

50%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoPatronato
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots6
3Corners5
22Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots6
4On Target3
4Off Target3
1Blocked0
8Inside Box4
1Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
396Total Passes397
279Accurate Passes283
70%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
22Fouls11
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 4–2 Patronato

Atletico Tucuman beat Patronato 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 15, 2021.

Goals: D. Gissi (16'), G. Acosta (36'), A. Lotti (43'), O. Benítez (63'), R. Ruiz (88'), G. Gudiño (90+3').

Patronato controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.