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Atletico Tucuman vs Defensores De Belgrano — Copa Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
3/21/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio 15 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atletico Tucuman65%
×Draw20%
Defensores De Belgrano16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
2.17
Defensores De Belgrano
0.96

Atletico Tucuman creates 126% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.67
Defensores De Belgrano
0.83

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.08
Defensores De Belgrano
2.67

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par
Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Defensores De Belgrano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
84%
Atletico Tucuman or Defensores De Belgrano
80%
Draw or Defensores De Belgrano
35%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
41%
Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
89%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
64%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
36%
Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
62%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
25%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
81%
Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Defensores De Belgrano away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.67 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.83 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
65%
level
20%
Defensores De Belgrano scores more
16%

Atletico Tucuman at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Defensores De Belgrano

Atletico Tucuman beat Defensores De Belgrano 4-0 in Copa Argentina on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 15 de Abril in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.