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Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. — Reserve League 2022

Atlético Tucumán Res.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
3/14/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Tucumán Res.33%
×Draw26%
Vélez Sársfield Res.41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.23
Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.41

Vélez Sársfield Res. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.48
Vélez Sársfield Res.
1.45

allows per match

Atlético Tucumán Res.
1.37
Vélez Sársfield Res.
0.97

finishing

Atlético Tucumán Res.+0.00on par
Vélez Sársfield Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tucumán Res. ↓

Vélez Sársfield Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Tucumán Res. or draw
59%
Atlético Tucumán Res. or Vélez Sársfield Res.
74%
Draw or Vélez Sársfield Res.
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Tucumán Res. wins by 2+
14%
Vélez Sársfield Res. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Tucumán Res. 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Tucumán Res. 3+ goals
13%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 1+ goals
76%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 2+ goals
41%
Vélez Sársfield Res. 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tucumán Res. (draw refunded)
44%
Vélez Sársfield Res. (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tucumán Res. at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

Vélez Sársfield Res. away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tucumán Res. attack 1.48 + Vélez Sársfield Res. defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vélez Sársfield Res. attack 1.45 + Atlético Tucumán Res. defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Tucumán Res. scores more
33%
level
26%
Vélez Sársfield Res. scores more
41%

Vélez Sársfield Res. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vélez Sársfield Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Atlético Tucumán Res. 1–4 Vélez Sársfield Res.

Vélez Sársfield Res. beat Atlético Tucumán Res. 4-1 in Reserve League on March 14, 2024.