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Atletico Torque vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
F. Pizzichillo 51'
5/6/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico Torque60%
×Draw25%
Palestino15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Torque
1.59
Palestino
0.64

Atletico Torque creates 148% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Atletico Torque
1.63
Palestino
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Torque
0.38
Palestino
1.56

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw
85%
Atletico Torque or Palestino
75%
Draw or Palestino
40%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+
33%
Palestino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
21%
Palestino 1+ goals
47%
Palestino 2+ goals
14%
Palestino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
80%
Palestino (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.63 + Palestino defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Palestino attack 0.89 + Atletico Torque defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletico Torque scores more
60%
level
25%
Palestino scores more
15%

Atletico Torque at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
F. PizzichilloAtletico TorqueAtletico Torque · M
7.9

Match Events

30'
Ramiro Lecchini
38'
Francisco Montes
46'
R. Fernandez← C. Munder
51'
F. Pizzichillo
52'
Franco Pizzichillo
66'
Nelson Da Silva
70'
J. Leon← F. T. Montes Romero
70'
M. Araya← B. Carrasco
73'
J. Quintana← R. Lecchini
81'
G. Tapia Paez← N. Da Silva
84'
D. Guzman← F. Pizzichillo
90+7'
Alexander da Silva
90+1'
Salomón Rodríguez
90+7'
Ian Garguez
90'
Enzo Roco
90+2'
N. Da Silva← G. Montes
90+2'
J. Taran← E. Obregon
90+2'
A. Gomez← D. Zuniga

Possession

40%Atletico

Shots

9Atletico

Pass accuracy

46%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoPalestino
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots13
0.25Expected Goals (xG)1.12
0Corners4
11Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target3
6Off Target8
0Blocked2
4Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
280Total Passes421
184Accurate Passes331
66%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-0.74Goals Prevented-0.74
Discipline
11Fouls18
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Atletico Torque 1–0 Palestino

Atletico Torque beat Palestino 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 6, 2026.

Goals: F. Pizzichillo (51').

Palestino controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.