Atletico Torque 4–1 Deportivo Riestra

Atletico Torque

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

E. Aguero 89'

S. Rodriguez 57'

J. Goitia 28' (OG)

I. Arce 8' (OG)

A. Diaz 61'

5/19/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Torque72%

×Draw20%

Deportivo Riestra8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TorqueExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.46

Atletico Torque

1.88

Deportivo Riestra

0.46

Atletico Torque creates 309% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

0.67

0.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Atletico Torque

1.75

Deportivo Riestra

0.67

allows per match

Atletico Torque

0.25

Deportivo Riestra

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw

92%

Atletico Torque or Deportivo Riestra

80%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

28%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+

45%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals

85%

Atletico Torque 2+ goals

56%

Atletico Torque 3+ goals

29%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

37%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

8%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)

90%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.75 + Deportivo Riestra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.67 + Atletico Torque defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Atletico Torque scores more

72%

level

20%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

8%

Atletico Torque at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Torgnascioli

Atletico Torque · G

8.7

Match Events

8'

I. ArceOwn goal

28'

J. GoitiaOwn goal

32'

Nicolás Sansotre

46'

N. Watson← P. Ramirez

46'

B. Perez← J. Herrera

49'

Alexander Díaz

57'

S. Rodriguez↳ E. Obregon

61'

62'

71'

75'

79'

B. Kociubinski← P. Siles

79'

D. Guzman← F. Pizzichillo

88'

Ignacio Arce

89'

E. Aguero↳ F. Silvera

90+1'

Diogo Guzmán

90+3'

S. Caceres← G. Montes

90+3'

N. Da Silva← E. Obregon

90+5'

J. Taran← G. Kagelmacher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots15

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.97

8Corners8

13Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots15

4On Target5

7Off Target4

4Blocked6

9Inside Box12

6Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

294Total Passes292

186Accurate Passes161

63%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-1.38Goals Prevented-1.38

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2