Atletico Torque 1–1 Defensor Sporting

Atletico Torque

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Defensor Sporting

S. Ribas 40'

A. Cambón 81'

6/5/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 1Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atletico Torque33%

×Draw27%

Defensor Sporting40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TorqueExpected goals in this matchDefensor Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.31

Atletico Torque

1.15

Defensor Sporting

1.31

Defensor Sporting creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 71 away

1.25

creates per match

1.14

1.49

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Atletico Torque

1.25

Defensor Sporting

1.14

allows per match

Atletico Torque

1.49

Defensor Sporting

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Defensor Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw

60%

Atletico Torque or Defensor Sporting

73%

Draw or Defensor Sporting

67%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+

13%

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Torque 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Torque 3+ goals

11%

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals

73%

Defensor Sporting 2+ goals

38%

Defensor Sporting 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)

45%

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.25 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Defensor Sporting attack 1.14 + Atletico Torque defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Torque scores more

33%

level

27%

Defensor Sporting scores more

40%

Defensor Sporting at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Lucas Paul De los Santos

26'

Fabricio Silveira

40'

S. Ribas

46'

J. Pereyra← F. Silveira

46'

E. Cuello← S. Scotto

63'

L. Agazzi← H. Figueredo

64'

Hernán Petrik

66'

S. Costa← S. Guerrero

76'

Gastón Guruceaga

77'

Lucas Rodríguez Trezza← T. Palacios

77'

M. Rabuñal← F. Catarozzi

81'

F. Elizari← N. Rodríguez

81'

A. Cambón← L. Barcia

81'

A. Cambón

85'

L. Ymbert← J. Pintado

88'

90+4'

90+6'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AtleticoDefensor

Overview

47%Possession53%

3Total Shots7

1Corners8

14Fouls14

Shots

3Total Shots7

1On Target1

2Off Target6

Passing

47%Possession53%

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides8

Primera División - Apertura: Atletico Torque 1–1 Defensor Sporting

Atletico Torque and Defensor Sporting drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 5, 2023.

Goals: S. Ribas (40'), A. Cambón (81').

Defensor Sporting controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 3.

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera in Montevideo.

Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Primera División - Apertura: Atletico Torque 1–1 Defensor Sporting