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Atlético Tordesillas vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas50%
×Draw28%
Salamanca II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.38
Salamanca II
0.84

Atlético Tordesillas creates 64% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 61 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
77%
Atlético Tordesillas or Salamanca II
72%
Draw or Salamanca II
50%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
24%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
16%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
57%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
21%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
68%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
50%
level
28%
Salamanca II scores more
23%

Atlético Tordesillas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Tordesillas 2–0 Salamanca II

Atlético Tordesillas beat Salamanca II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.