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Atlético Tordesillas vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas50%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.42
La Virgen del Camino
0.87

Atlético Tordesillas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
77%
Atlético Tordesillas or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
50%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
25%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
17%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
58%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
22%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
68%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
50%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
23%

Atlético Tordesillas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 1 – 0 La Virgen del Camino

Atlético Tordesillas beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.