Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Tordesillas vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
9/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas40%
×Draw29%
Cristo Atlético31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.18
Cristo Atlético
1.02

Atlético Tordesillas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 80 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
69%
Atlético Tordesillas or Cristo Atlético
71%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
60%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
17%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
12%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
64%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
27%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
56%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
40%
level
29%
Cristo Atlético scores more
31%

Atlético Tordesillas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Tordesillas 0–1 Cristo Atlético

Cristo Atlético beat Atlético Tordesillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.