Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Tordesillas vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
6/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas48%
×Draw31%
Burgos Promesas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.17
Burgos Promesas
0.67

Atlético Tordesillas creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.00
Burgos Promesas
0.33

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.00
Burgos Promesas
1.33

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
79%
Atlético Tordesillas or Burgos Promesas
69%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
21%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
11%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
49%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
15%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
69%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.00 + Burgos Promesas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Burgos Promesas attack 0.33 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
48%
level
31%
Burgos Promesas scores more
21%

Atlético Tordesillas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tordesillas vs Burgos Promesas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Burgos Promesas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.