Atlético Tomelloso 0–2 Toledo: Result & Stats

Atlético Tomelloso

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Toledo

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 28Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso27%

×Draw29%

Toledo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TomellosoExpected goals in this matchToledo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.24

Atlético Tomelloso

0.89

Toledo

1.24

Toledo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 95 away

0.94

creates per match

1.01

1.47

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso

0.94

Toledo

1.01

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso

1.47

Toledo

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Toledo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw

56%

Atlético Tomelloso or Toledo

71%

Draw or Toledo

73%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+

9%

Toledo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals

6%

Toledo 1+ goals

71%

Toledo 2+ goals

35%

Toledo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)

37%

Toledo (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Toledo attack 1.01 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more

27%

level

29%

Toledo scores more

44%

Toledo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff