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Atlético Tomelloso vs Talavera II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talavera II
Talavera II
11/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso52%
×Draw24%
Talavera II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tomelloso
1.71
Talavera II
1.10

Atlético Tomelloso creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso
0.94
Talavera II
0.73

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso
1.47
Talavera II
2.47

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par
Talavera II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Talavera II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw
76%
Atlético Tomelloso or Talavera II
76%
Draw or Talavera II
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
28%
Talavera II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
51%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
24%
Talavera II 1+ goals
67%
Talavera II 2+ goals
30%
Talavera II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
68%
Talavera II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Talavera II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Talavera II defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Talavera II attack 0.73 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more
52%
level
24%
Talavera II scores more
24%

Atlético Tomelloso at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Tomelloso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tomelloso 1 – 0 Talavera II

Atlético Tomelloso beat Talavera II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez in Tomelloso.