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Atlético Tomelloso vs Socuéllamos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Socuéllamos
Socuéllamos
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso23%
×Draw29%
Socuéllamos49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tomelloso
0.80
Socuéllamos
1.31

Socuéllamos creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso
0.94
Socuéllamos
1.15

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso
1.47
Socuéllamos
0.67

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par
Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Socuéllamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw
51%
Atlético Tomelloso or Socuéllamos
71%
Draw or Socuéllamos
77%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
7%
Socuéllamos wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
5%
Socuéllamos 1+ goals
73%
Socuéllamos 2+ goals
38%
Socuéllamos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
32%
Socuéllamos (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Socuéllamos away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Socuéllamos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Socuéllamos attack 1.15 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more
23%
level
29%
Socuéllamos scores more
49%

Socuéllamos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tomelloso vs Socuéllamos

Atlético Tomelloso and Socuéllamos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez in Tomelloso.