Atlético Tembetary 0–1 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Atlético Tembetary

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Guarani

I. Ramirez 5'

7/27/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 4Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Tembetary26%

×Draw25%

Club Guarani49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TembetaryExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.56

Atlético Tembetary

1.05

Club Guarani

1.56

Club Guarani creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

1.46

1.67

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary

1.33

Club Guarani

1.46

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary

1.67

Club Guarani

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw

51%

Atlético Tembetary or Club Guarani

75%

Draw or Club Guarani

74%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+

10%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals

9%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

79%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

46%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)

34%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.33 + Club Guarani defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.05

Club Guarani attack 1.46 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more

26%

level

25%

Club Guarani scores more

49%

Club Guarani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Chena

Atlético Tembetary · G

8.2

Match Events

5'

I. Ramirez↳ F. Fernandez

26'

Gabriel Gudiño

46'

J. F. Esteche← J. Diaz

71'

E. Perez← A. Gomez

71'

S. Zaracho← T. Servin

71'

R. Torales← C. E. Mino Amarilla

71'

Jhon Sanchez← D. Rodriguez

78'

P. Adorno← S. Olmedo

80'

A. Barbotte← I. Ramirez

84'

Wildo AlonsoCard upgrade

85'

Wildo Alonso

85'

O. Barreto← L. Guinazu

90+5'

Orlín Barreto

90+4'

Fernando Román

90+2'

F. J. Roman Torales← F. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtléticoClub

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots14

0.27Expected Goals (xG)2.22

4Corners7

15Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target7

2Off Target3

2Blocked4

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

264Total Passes353

156Accurate Passes252

59%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2