Atlético Tembetary 2–0 3 de Febrero: Result & Stats

Atlético Tembetary

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

3 de Febrero

8/23/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlético Tembetary48%

×Draw27%

3 de Febrero26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TembetaryExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.99

Atlético Tembetary

1.45

3 de Febrero

0.99

Atlético Tembetary creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 78 away

1.57

creates per match

1.03

0.95

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary

1.57

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary

0.95

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw

74%

Atlético Tembetary or 3 de Febrero

73%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

52%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+

24%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals

42%

Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals

18%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

63%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

26%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)

65%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.57 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Atlético Tembetary defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more

48%

level

27%

3 de Febrero scores more

26%

Atlético Tembetary at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff