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Atlético Tacoronte vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
CANC
00:00
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte54%
×Draw24%
Unión Viera22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.71
Unión Viera
1.01

Atlético Tacoronte creates 69% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
78%
Atlético Tacoronte or Unión Viera
76%
Draw or Unión Viera
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
29%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
51%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
24%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
64%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
27%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
71%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
54%
level
24%
Unión Viera scores more
22%

Atlético Tacoronte at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tacoronte vs Unión Viera — Match Preview

Atlético Tacoronte face Unión Viera on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atlético Tacoronte host Unión Viera at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.