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Atlético Tacoronte vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte37%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.23
UD San Fernando
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
64%
Atlético Tacoronte or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
63%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
16%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
13%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
70%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
34%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
51%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
37%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
36%

Atlético Tacoronte at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Tacoronte 0–4 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Atlético Tacoronte 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.