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Atlético Tacoronte vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 21Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte36%
×Draw27%
Tenerife II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.28
Tenerife II
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 74 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
63%
Atlético Tacoronte or Tenerife II
73%
Draw or Tenerife II
64%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
16%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
14%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
73%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
37%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
49%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
36%
level
27%
Tenerife II scores more
37%

Tenerife II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tacoronte 1 – 2 Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat Atlético Tacoronte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.