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Atlético Tacoronte vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
3/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte48%
×Draw26%
Santa Úrsula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.50
Santa Úrsula
1.02

Atlético Tacoronte creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 92 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
74%
Atlético Tacoronte or Santa Úrsula
74%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
24%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
44%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
19%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
64%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
27%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
65%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
48%
level
26%
Santa Úrsula scores more
26%

Atlético Tacoronte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tacoronte 1 – 2 Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Atlético Tacoronte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.