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Atlético Tacoronte vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte39%
×Draw27%
Panadería Pulido34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.34
Panadería Pulido
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 94 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
66%
Atlético Tacoronte or Panadería Pulido
73%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
18%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
15%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
71%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
35%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
54%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
39%
level
27%
Panadería Pulido scores more
34%

Atlético Tacoronte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tacoronte vs Panadería Pulido

Atlético Tacoronte beat Panadería Pulido 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.