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Atlético Tacoronte vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte44%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tacoronte
1.40
Las Palmas III
1.10

Atlético Tacoronte creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 59 away

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.48
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte
1.15
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw
70%
Atlético Tacoronte or Las Palmas III
73%
Draw or Las Palmas III
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
21%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
17%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
67%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
30%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
60%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more
44%
level
27%
Las Palmas III scores more
30%

Atlético Tacoronte at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tacoronte 1 – 1 Las Palmas III

Atlético Tacoronte and Las Palmas III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.