Atlético Tacoronte 1–2 Arucas: Result & Stats

Atlético Tacoronte

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arucas

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 6Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte46%

×Draw26%

Arucas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TacoronteExpected goals in this matchArucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Atlético Tacoronte

1.47

Arucas

1.10

Atlético Tacoronte creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 96 away

1.48

creates per match

1.06

1.15

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte

1.48

Arucas

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte

1.15

Arucas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Arucas →

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw

72%

Atlético Tacoronte or Arucas

74%

Draw or Arucas

54%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+

22%

Arucas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals

18%

Arucas 1+ goals

67%

Arucas 2+ goals

30%

Arucas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)

62%

Arucas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arucas attack 1.06 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more

46%

level

26%

Arucas scores more

28%

Atlético Tacoronte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Tacoronte vs Arucas

Arucas beat Atlético Tacoronte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.

Atlético Tacoronte vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Tacoronte vs Arucas