Atletico San Luis 0–2 Necaxa: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Necaxa

A. Zendejas 90+3'

Unai Bilbao 41' (OG)

8/13/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Atletico San Luis41%

×Draw25%

Necaxa34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.39

Atletico San Luis

1.54

Necaxa

1.39

Atletico San Luis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 139 away

1.36

creates per match

1.27

1.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.50

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

66%

Atletico San Luis or Necaxa

75%

Draw or Necaxa

59%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

20%

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

79%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

45%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

20%

Necaxa 1+ goals

75%

Necaxa 2+ goals

40%

Necaxa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

54%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

41%

level

25%

Necaxa scores more

34%

Atletico San Luis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Zendejas

Necaxa · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Alonso Escoboza

26'

Ricardo Chávez

41'

Unai BilbaoOwn goal

45'

Julio González

46'

D. Batallini← R. Chávez

54'

A. Vombergar← E. Orona

59'

A. Sepúlveda← M. Salas

65'

I. Domínguez← J. Escoboza

75'

77'

86'

89'

90+6'

Adam BareiroPenalty cancelled

90+4'

Ángel Sepúlveda

90+6'

Adam BareiroPenalty cancelled

90+3'

A. Zendejas↳ A. Sepúlveda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoNecaxa

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots12

8Corners1

9Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target4

5Off Target7

7Blocked1

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

464Total Passes277

360Accurate Passes183

78%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0