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Atletico San Luis vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
L. Flores 70'
B. Galdames 68'
Joao Pedro Galvao 45', 19'
1/3/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico San Luis94%
×Draw4%
Mineros de Zacatecas2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico San Luis
4.58
Mineros de Zacatecas
0.58

Atletico San Luis creates 690% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Atletico San Luis
4.50
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.17

allows per match

Atletico San Luis
0.00
Mineros de Zacatecas
4.67

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw
98%
Atletico San Luis or Mineros de Zacatecas
96%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
6%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
84%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
99%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
93%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
80%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
44%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
12%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
98%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 4.50, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 4.50 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.58

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.17 + Atletico San Luis defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more
94%
level
4%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
2%

Atletico San Luis at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Joao Pedro Galvao
45'
Joao Pedro Galvao
68'
B. Galdames
70'
L. Flores
Atletico
Mineros
Guillermo Abascal
Manager: Guillermo Abascal
Mario Garcia
Manager: Mario Garcia

Friendlies Clubs: Atletico San Luis 4–0 Mineros de Zacatecas

Atletico San Luis beat Mineros de Zacatecas 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 3, 2026.

Goals: Joao Pedro Galvao (19', 45'), B. Galdames (68'), L. Flores (70').