Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul

Atletico San Luis

Preview

01:00

Cruz Azul

7/18/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Libertad Financiera

Big match

38%

Cruz Azul

model favours

37%25%38%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Atletico San Luis37%

×Draw25%

Cruz Azul38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.46

Atletico San Luis

1.42

Cruz Azul

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 63 away

1.71

creates per match

1.48

1.43

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.71

Cruz Azul

1.48

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.43

Cruz Azul

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

62%

Atletico San Luis or Cruz Azul

75%

Draw or Cruz Azul

63%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

17%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

76%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

41%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

17%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

77%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

43%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

49%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.71 + Cruz Azul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cruz Azul attack 1.48 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

37%

level

25%

Cruz Azul scores more

38%

Cruz Azul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
Cruz Azul have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
Atletico San Luis sit 14, Cruz Azul 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Atletico San Luis

Balanced

Cruz Azul

Balanced

47%Possession50%

81%Pass accuracy80%

9.4ShotsBiggest gap16.5

0.98xG1.28

Atletico San LuisCruz Azul

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1

Atletico San Luis

0

Draws

5

Cruz Azul

Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 50%

0–31–20–33–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Luis

WWWDL

Azul

DWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico San Luis host Cruz Azul

July 18, 2026: Atletico San Luis take on Cruz Azul in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico San Luis host Cruz Azul at Estadio Libertad Financiera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Preview: Atletico San Luis host Cruz Azul