Atletico San Luis 3–1 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cruz Azul

É. Lira 90+7' (OG)

J. Güémez 45+4'

F. Boli 35'

I. Rivero 32'

9/18/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Atletico San Luis35%

×Draw26%

Cruz Azul40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.40

Atletico San Luis

1.29

Cruz Azul

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 156 away

1.36

creates per match

1.31

1.49

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Cruz Azul

1.31

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.49

Cruz Azul

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

60%

Atletico San Luis or Cruz Azul

74%

Draw or Cruz Azul

65%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

15%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

72%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

37%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

14%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

75%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

41%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

47%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cruz Azul attack 1.31 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

35%

level

26%

Cruz Azul scores more

40%

Cruz Azul at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Salles-Lamonge

Atletico San Luis · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

I. Rivero↳ C. Rotondi

35'

F. Boli

45+4'

J. Güémez

56'

R. Chávez← I. Moreno

62'

A. Gutiérrez← A. Montaño

65'

B. Galdames← Yan Phillipe

66'

Andrés Sánchez

66'

M. Klimowicz← F. Boli

69'

G. Giakoumakis← J. Sánchez

69'

C. Rodríguez← L. Faravelli

74'

Gonzalo Piovi

84'

C. Cándido← C. Rotondi

85'

M. Levy← Á. Sepúlveda

86'

Juan Manuel SanabriaGoal cancelled

90+7'

É. LiraOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoCruz

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots13

4Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target4

5Off Target9

3Blocked0

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

404Total Passes502

334Accurate Passes416

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

6Offsides3