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Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santomera
Santomera
11/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño48%
×Draw24%
Santomera27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.64
Santomera
1.17

Atlético Pulpileño creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Santomera
1.68

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Santomera
1.91

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Santomera+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Santomera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
73%
Atlético Pulpileño or Santomera
76%
Draw or Santomera
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
25%
Santomera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
23%
Santomera 1+ goals
69%
Santomera 2+ goals
33%
Santomera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
64%
Santomera (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Santomera away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Santomera defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

Santomera attack 1.68 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
48%
level
24%
Santomera scores more
27%

Atlético Pulpileño at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera

Atlético Pulpileño beat Santomera 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.