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Atlético Pulpileño vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Muleño
Muleño
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño54%
×Draw26%
Muleño20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.53
Muleño
0.82

Atlético Pulpileño creates 87% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 95 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
80%
Atlético Pulpileño or Muleño
74%
Draw or Muleño
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
28%
Muleño wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
20%
Muleño 1+ goals
56%
Muleño 2+ goals
20%
Muleño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
73%
Muleño (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Muleño attack 0.99 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
54%
level
26%
Muleño scores more
20%

Atlético Pulpileño at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pulpileño 5 – 4 Muleño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Muleño 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.