Atlético Pulpileño 3–0 EDMF Churra: Result & Stats

Atlético Pulpileño

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

EDMF Churra

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño57%

×Draw24%

EDMF Churra18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PulpileñoExpected goals in this matchEDMF Churra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.81

Atlético Pulpileño

1.65

EDMF Churra

0.81

Atlético Pulpileño creates 104% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 28 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

0.66

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño

1.37

EDMF Churra

0.96

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño

0.66

EDMF Churra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

EDMF Churra →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw

82%

Atlético Pulpileño or EDMF Churra

76%

Draw or EDMF Churra

43%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

31%

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

81%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

49%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

23%

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

56%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

19%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

76%

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

57%

level

24%

EDMF Churra scores more

18%

Atlético Pulpileño at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs EDMF Churra

Atlético Pulpileño beat EDMF Churra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.

Atlético Pulpileño vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs EDMF Churra