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Atlético Pulpileño vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
CANC
00:00
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño52%
×Draw27%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.41
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.76

Atlético Pulpileño creates 86% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
80%
Atlético Pulpileño or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
73%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
17%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
53%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
18%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
72%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
52%
level
27%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
20%

Atlético Pulpileño at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pulpileño vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Match Preview

Atlético Pulpileño face CAP Ciudad de Murcia on April 12, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Atlético Pulpileño host CAP Ciudad de Murcia at Estadio San Miguel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.