Atlético Pulpileño 1–0 Bala Azul: Result & Stats

Atlético Pulpileño

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bala Azul

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño50%

×Draw28%

Bala Azul22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PulpileñoExpected goals in this matchBala Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.78

Atlético Pulpileño

1.34

Bala Azul

0.78

Atlético Pulpileño creates 72% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

1.37

creates per match

0.90

0.66

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño

1.37

Bala Azul

0.90

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño

0.66

Bala Azul

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Bala Azul →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw

78%

Atlético Pulpileño or Bala Azul

72%

Draw or Bala Azul

50%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

24%

Bala Azul wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

39%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

15%

Bala Azul 1+ goals

54%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

18%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

70%

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

50%

level

28%

Bala Azul scores more

22%

Atlético Pulpileño at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Bala Azul

Atlético Pulpileño beat Bala Azul 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.

Atlético Pulpileño vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Bala Azul