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Atlético Pulpileño vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Algar
Algar
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño61%
×Draw24%
Algar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.66
Algar
0.66

Atlético Pulpileño creates 152% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Algar
0.65

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Algar
1.94

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
85%
Atlético Pulpileño or Algar
76%
Draw or Algar
39%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
34%
Algar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
23%
Algar 1+ goals
48%
Algar 2+ goals
14%
Algar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
81%
Algar (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Algar attack 0.65 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
61%
level
24%
Algar scores more
15%

Atlético Pulpileño at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 0–0 Algar

Atlético Pulpileño and Algar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.