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Atlético Pulpileño vs Alcantarilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño58%
×Draw26%
Alcantarilla16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.48
Alcantarilla
0.63

Atlético Pulpileño creates 135% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 49 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Alcantarilla
0.59

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Alcantarilla
1.59

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Alcantarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Alcantarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
84%
Atlético Pulpileño or Alcantarilla
74%
Draw or Alcantarilla
42%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
30%
Alcantarilla wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
19%
Alcantarilla 1+ goals
47%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
13%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
79%
Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Alcantarilla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Alcantarilla defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alcantarilla attack 0.59 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
58%
level
26%
Alcantarilla scores more
16%

Atlético Pulpileño at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pulpileño 1 – 0 Alcantarilla

Atlético Pulpileño beat Alcantarilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.