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Alcantarilla vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
1/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla27%
×Draw29%
Atlético Pulpileño44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
0.90
Atlético Pulpileño
1.25

Atlético Pulpileño creates 39% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
56%
Alcantarilla or Atlético Pulpileño
71%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
73%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
9%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
59%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
23%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
6%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
38%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
27%
level
29%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
44%

Atlético Pulpileño at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcantarilla 2 – 5 Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Alcantarilla 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.